Vol.8 No.2 2015
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Research paper : Study of the top 70 NEDO Inside Products (M. YAMASHITA et al.)−79−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.8 No.2 (2015) 360,539154,440319,81172,37028,26672,05868,40617,488162,404119,67047,358103,358620,985247,552657,632(Unit: 100 million yen)1) Further induced effect is expected for 20 products among Top 70 NEDO Inside Products2) Total amount for all the products within the fields in question was calculated regardless of the value of primary or secondary induced effectVacuum insulating materials, residential fuel cells, residential heat pumps, etc.HousingProducts: low-emission hybrid diesel vehicles, clean diesel vehiclesParts: Desulfurization catalysts for sulfur-free light oil, sulfur-free light oilAutomobilesDye bond films, MEMS, non-volatile memories, DRAM, insulating materials for electronic materials, power semiconductor materials, etc.SemiconductorsSolar power generation, wind power generation, residential fuel cells, gas turbines, waste power generation, etc.EnergySecondary induced effectPrimary induced effectNet sales forecast2) (2011~2020) Induced economic effect (2011~2020)Specific NEDO Inside Products1)FieldTotalper year) generated by the sales revenue and the increased employee income from primary induced economic effect of 15,816 (million yen per year). The result was multiplied by the consumption conversion rate and consumption pattern, and the increased household consumption expenditures, 17,972 (million yen per year) was obtained. As the household consumption includes imported products, each product was multiplied by the domestic self-sufficiency rate, then the inverse matrix coefficients; the estimated secondary induced economic effect was 27,410 (million yen per year). Additionally, the full extent of cumulative economic effects for 2011 - 2020 is provided in Figs. 4-1 and 4-2. For other industries, net sales and primary and secondary induced economic effects were calculated likewise.4.5 Calculation of the primary and secondary economic induced effects of NEDO Inside ProductsBy utilizing the inter-industry relations table, we found out that 20 of NEDO Inside Products are viable for the calculation of the induced economic effects (primary and secondary) on upstream and downstream of their supply chains: the technological fields specific to these products are energy, semiconductors, automobiles, and housing. The summary of 2011-2020 forecasted net sales and economic effects consisting of net sales (65.76 trillion yen), primary induced economic effect (62.1 trillion yen), and secondary induced economic effect (24.76 trillion yen) are shown in Table 4. It is now evident that the best-selling energy-related products have also had significant induced economic effects. For the net sales forecast, the sales forecasts of all the products in the fields concerned were aggregated, regardless of the values of induced effects. It can be seen from the results in Table 4, the secondary induced economic effects (the effect on employment) of energy and housing-related products are larger than any other products. This is possibly attributed to the additional tasks besides manufacturing such as installation and transportation. There are in fact countless NEDO R&D projects that have potential to increase employment opportunities within manufacturing sectors; however, the results above suggest that it is important to envision further job opportunities which involve product installation and transportation, particularly when carrying out the project specifically aims at expanding job creation effect.5 Technological ripple effect of NEDO Inside Products5.1 NEDO Inside Products that have technological ripple effects as generic technologiesNEDO Inside Products include parts/materials, processing technologies, and intermediate products which vastly contribute to the improvement of existing products despite their marginal net sales. Figure 5 shows the flow from the projects to the products (of high-functional parts and processes with far-reaching technological ripple effects, which are evolved from the NEDO projects after 2000), and their domestic sales and global market shares in FY 2010. Compared to the products and the processes which require long development period as in new energy and environmental products, the high-functional parts and the intermediate products with shorter product lifespan but highly versatile are rapidly spreading their technological ripple effects across the industries (e.g., automobiles, computer products, home appliances). In the interviews with the companies, we noticed their preference of the R&D of high-functional parts and intermediate products that can be carried out in a short period of time with lower development cost to the development of innovative large-scale machines or processes which are costly and time-consuming. The companies also seem to have positive outlook on the technological ripple effects of high-functional parts and intermediate products to other end products. Thus, we estimated that the sales effect on relevant products would reach approximately 175.2 trillion yen.[14][16][31] It is in fact relatively simply to calculate the sales of such end products as solar power generation, gas turbines, high-performance Table 4. Ten-year sales forecast of NEDO Inside Products and their induced economic effects

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