Vol.8 No.2 2015

Research paper : Study of the top 70 NEDO Inside Products (M. YAMASHITA et al.)−74−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.8 No.2 (2015) time. Figure 3(A) shows the life-cycle curve of the sales of a NEDO Inside Product. NEDO Inside Products are diverse in lifespan: From a solar power generation device with almost 30-year lifespan to electronic components that only last for few years. Therefore, it was crucial to adopt an optimal life-cycle curve by exploring a suitable timescale to define the characteristics of the product from different perspectives. To evaluate the sales impact of NEDO Inside Products, three types of figures, i.e., cumulative sales for the past five years, most recent sales, and sales forecasts, were estimated. The sales figures could shift depending on the product as shown in (B), (C), and (D) of Fig. 3. Figure 3(B) demonstrates the products whose sales growth rate would continue to surpass the previous figures for a given period of time. This is based on the sales growth rate up to 2011 assuming that it should continue until 2020. In Figure 3(C), the curve denotes the products the industry and the government expect a certain level of growth each year. As for the products whose future sales forecasts were provided by the companies in reply to the questionnaire, we performed the calculation assuming that the sales would grow until 2020 at the growth rate from 2011 to a given time in future. Represented in Figure 3(D) are the products with short lifespan, or whose future sales are somewhat unpredictable. These figures are projected on the condition that there would be no growth after 2011 and therefore the figures should remain the same.[13]-[18][24] The products showing the curves (E), (X), and (Z) are those that are discontinued, have had negligible sales volumes if any, and had sales record in the past but currently almost none being sold respectively: We excluded these products or processes from the list of NEDO Inside Products candidates.2.8 Success factors of NEDO Inside ProductsListed below are the major factors we identified from the questionnaires and the interviews, which led NEDO Inside Products to success: (1) The participants gained significantly larger amount of data, compared to their usual research situation; (2) the companies made use of a mechanism which brought about improved reliability and problem-solving strategies, and development, modification, and extension(scale-up) of research policies through joint research opportunity with universities; (3) the participants were reasonably confident with the technology from the start for its practical feasibility and commercial viability; (4) the participants kept the idea for long until the project launch; (5) the participants had already had unrivaled know-how and capabilities, which saw further improvement and were exploited in the course of the project; (6) the participants were skeptical about the market information and proactive in exchanging information within the team; and (7) the participants carried out prototype demonstrations and repeatedly verified and modified the technology to the point where it was elaborate enough to ensure its proximity to commercialization. We presume that there should be some other factor(s) involved, which need follow-up surveys to be clarified.3 Impact evaluation of NEDO Inside Products3.1 Characteristics of NEDO Inside ProductsGroups of top 70 NEDO Inside Products, including solar power generation, wind power generation, gas turbines, residential heat pump hot water supply system, micro-electro-mechanical systems (MEMS), and clean vehicles, have recently recorded above100 billion yen sales showing an upward trend. In contrast, some of the products with recent sales between 10 billion yen and 100 billion yen, waste power generation and residential fuel cells, for example, did not show significant sales growth as expected. This implies that they have already completed their introductory stage, or the production has been too costly. The sales of projectNEDOAXBCDEZMaturationStart date of developmentMarket releaseChange over time (variable): Fixed axis for next 10 yearsSales (price×sales volume)Basic example :Fig. 3 Life cycle of sales of NEDO Inside Products


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