Vol.6 No.3 2014
Article : Portfolio structuring and social implementation in the development of complex technology (T. KOMAI)−183−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.6 No.3 (2013) activities such as sociology and industry-government-academia collaboration as stage IV. Figure 2 was revised to show the four stages to make it understandable.4 Sparse Bayesian modelingComment (Hiroaki Tao)I think the “sparse Bayesian modeling” in risk assessment is a very important analysis method. I think it will help the readers’ understanding if you provide a brief explanation in the terminology section.Answer (Takeshi Komai)Sparse modeling is one of the information analysis methods using the Bayes’ theorem. Recently in geosciences, it is utilized for the extraction of main information in big data and for the restoration of images. In the field of risk assessment, it is gaining attention as a new numerical method for estimating prior risks from posterior occurrence rates, and it has been applied to some complex systems such as the ecosystem. The author and co-researchers are engaging in research to apply the Bayesian statistics to geochemical identification of tsunami deposits. I added a terminology section.5 Public utilization of the technology and its standardizationComment (Hiroaki Tao)In “subchapter 4.2 Public utilization of the technology and its standardization,” you write, “Recently, through the joint research with the Environment Bureau of Tokyo, the new version of GERAS is being developed with added LCA.” I think you can indicate the potential of the new development if you describe the significance of adding LCA to the components. Perhaps LCA is included partially in the statistics and information science in Fig. 2, but can you add LCA to the components?Answer (Takeshi Komai)In the risk assessment up to now, the chronological analysis of the frequency or probability of phenomena or events was not done. However, in soil contamination measures, it is necessary to conduct chronological and spatial analysis for environmental load and energy balance of the various processes from survey to decontamination. Therefore, we developed a method to comprehensively evaluate the life cycles of countermeasures, from the perspective of environmental energy, and not just the environmental burden. The objective is to conduct general assessment of the environmental impact as a whole, including the effects on the surrounding environment, ecosystem, and earth environment (CO2 emission). Figure 3 was newly added to explain these points.Comment (Hiroaki Tao)In “subchapter 4.2 Public utilization of the technology and its standardization,” you write about international standardization. Please describe if there are any actions toward JIS standardization.Answer (Takeshi Komai)For the international framework, we are already proposing the risk assessment model to ISO. In Japan, the introduction of the risk assessment method is considered within the legal system of individual agencies and ministries, and some have already employed it as the official framework. The next step is the standardization of the domestic risk assessment technology, with international standardization in mind. I think it is about time we begin the efforts across various ministries and agencies for standardization including JIS.6 Integration system for GEARS developmentComment (Chikao Kurimoto)For the synthesis of academia and research in Fig. 2, I think it is appropriate that you added Fig. 3 that presents integration and provides comprehensive discussion of the geo-environment. It shows the course for conducting assessments of the environmental risks that exist in the geo-environment, and for integrating the groundwater model, aquatic model, and the economic and LCA model that lie ahead. Please check the uniformity of the terminologies such as the economic model, ecosystem model, LCA model, and others in the figures, captions, and text of the article.Answer (Takeshi Komai)Figure 3 shows the scenario where the groundwater and aquatic models are developed in addition to the soil contamination, the economic and LCA models are developed in relation to the individual models, and the entire integrated system that links with the individual models is delivered to the end user. The terminologies were organized and revised so they would be uniform in the text and in the figure caption.