Vol.6 No.3 2014
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Article : Portfolio structuring and social implementation in the development of complex technology (T. KOMAI)−178−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.6 No.3 (2013) sciences is mandatory. The efforts of industry, government, and academia are extremely important to actively employ human resources from social sciences. Specifically, AIST is working on difficult socioeconomic problems by conducting several joint researches with the environment divisions of local governments and public research institutions. Since universities harbor abundant human resources in social and environmental sciences, the amalgamation of academic fields that specializes in risk assessment is important. By conducting researches on soil contamination risk assessment through collaborative lectures and joint researches with universities as well as innovation school systems of companies, we obtained composite results unseen before. Joint researches on risk assessments of radioactive materials and new mathematical statistics methods are being conducted with universities. Also, through questionnaire surveys on the use and diffusion of GERAS, much know-how was accumulated such as functions that are truly needed in the assessment system, methods to feedback various data, and ways of securing reliability of the assessment results.3 Development scenario and portfolio analysis3.1 Composition of the portfolioIn order to achieve research goals in a short time, to realize products, and to implement the results in society in efficient ways, the most important point is the management of the processes including the composition of portfolios for individual elements as well as designing R&D scenarios. Indeed, it is extremely rare to be able to realize a product with only a single technology or a single technological system. The overwhelming majority of the cases are achieved by combining and fusing multiple technological elements. In such scenarios, the key to success is to perform preliminary portfolio analysis for what are the elemental technologies essential for technological development, what is the optimal combination of the technologies, and which elements are lacking within the team.Figure 1 shows the portfolio of the technological elements (research topics) that were considered necessary for the development of GERAS. This figure shows the qualitative relationship in terms of the maturity of R&D and society (market). While the goal of the technological development for both is to show the upward vector, appropriate fusion is important in addition to the improvement of various technological elements such as of soil surveys, chemical analyses, environmental restorations, risk assessments, information analyses, physical explorations, and others. For example, although soil contamination information is deeply related to all elements, the possibility of fusion is determined by how such elements can be linked organically from the perspective of “risks.” In addition, it was necessary to respond to the social demands for assessment of tsunami deposits and radioactive materials. That is, not only basic research and product realization research shown in the legend of the figure, but also the combination of the integration and demand-response researches based on social demand become important. In fact, there were no clear images from the beginning of the development, and only some technological elements were clearly positioned and defined. However, in the course of the development, methods were devised to accelerate the development when we hit the stage of the “valley of death.” As discussed here, the construction of the portfolio provides important implications for the fusion and integration of technologies by clarifying the goals to be achieved. In addition to the advancement of the core technological elements, the dynamics of the technologies that must be newly deployed and those that must be accelerated become clear.3.2 Weakness of elemental technologies and its reinforcementThe great mistake one tends to fall into in R&D is to focus on technological elements with high priority and lose sight of the peripheral technologies. This may be the disadvantage of the R&D in Japan, and there are many cases 5-15-24-24-1321Demand response researchProduct realization researchBasic research1. Soil contamination risk assessment2. Soil contamination restoration technology3. High-precision soil survey technology4. Soil contamination comprehensive assessment technology4-1. Geo-environmental integration method4-2. Organization of geo-environmental information5. Soil measures for disaster restoration5-1. Tsunami soil contamination risk5-2. Radioactive substances riskMarket maturity →PotentialActualProgress of R&DBasic researchProduct realization↑Fig. 1 Portfolio analysis in the development of GERASShown in the diagram are the positioning of individual elements from the perspectives of the progress of R&D and maturity of market for soil contamination countermeasures, for the various technological elements that comprise GERAS.

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