Vol.6 No.3 2014

Research paper−137−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.6 No.3 pp.137-146 (Dec. 2013) electricity consumption behaviors in 2011 and 2010 was quite apparent. Furthermore, it could also be seen that the electricity demand has an uncertainty under the respective regression models. However, because of the change of the electricity consumption behaviors for the present situation of the electricity supply, it is not necessarily easy to grasp the stochastic distribution of the electricity demand precisely.Yamamoto[3] has presented a research report about the influence of the electricity power shortage caused by the East Japan Great Earthquake disaster to the Japanese economy. In this report, Yamamoto insisted that the temporary electricity savings under tight electric power supply of the last summer did not influence the production and the employment so much. Yamamoto has concluded that although the employment rate has worsened by the prolongation of the electric power savings, not the voluntary electric power savings but rather the enforced reduction of the electric power supply decreases the production and employment. This fact suggests the necessity of showing an appropriate target for electric power savings.The Kansai Electric Power Company made an announcement requesting for a 15 % reduction in electricity consumption for the summer of 2011, after the earthquake disaster. At that time, Mr. Hashimoto who was the Governor of Osaka Prefecture demanded for a reason for the request to the Kansai Electric Power Company. However, the Kansai Electric Power Company made no reply to this query and remained silent. The summer of 2011 passed and it was 1 IntroductionProspects for new constructions and resumptions of nuclear power plants are uncertain. Considering the present situation, securing electricity supply from the new electric generating system based on renewable energy in addition to the conventional electric generating systems, e.g. thermal plants, is an urgent issue. At the same time, it goes without saying that a system for planning electric power savings should be developed.[1][2]From the summer of 2011, the Tokyo Electric Power Company, Inc. and the Kansai Electric Power Company, Inc. have begun to offer electricity demand-supply balance information about the ratio of the expected maximum electricity demand against the expected electricity supply of the electricity consumption peak period of any given day and the next day on the website. It seems that the expected maximum electricity demand and the expected electricity supply in the electricity consumption peak period are estimated by the past data and experience accumulated in each electric power company.On the website of autumn, 2011, a regression model of the peak electricity demand according to atmospheric temperatures was published for the purpose of enlightening the community on electricity consumption. On this website, the regression models of temperature and the maximum electricity demand of the summers of 2010 and 2011 were illustrated. From this illustration, the difference between - Probability evaluation system of electric power shortage occurrence under tight electric power supply-Japan has to urgently build a new system for securing electric power supply including renewable energy and for saving electric power. The electricity demand and the electricity supply based on renewable energy are influenced by the weather. Thermal power generation may also be affected by equipment failure. Therefore, plotting of a plan is required to avoid electric power shortage under inaccurate prediction for supply and demand of electricity. In this article, we propose a probability evaluation system to avoid electricity shortage. We also propose a method for setting the electricity saving rate to avoid electricity shortage while maintaining the present level of electricity shortage occurrence risk.A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrenceKeywords : Electric power demand-and-supply balance, electric power shortage probability evaluation system, Chebychev probability inequality, Bennett probability inequality, Hoeffding probability inequality[Translation from Synthesiology, Vol.6, No.3, p.140-151 (2013)]Ikuo Arizono1* and Yasuhiko Takemoto21. Graduate School of Natural Science and Technology, Okayama University 3-1-1 Tsushima-naka, Okayama 700-8530, Japan *E-mail: , 2. Faculty of Management and Information Systems, Prefectural University of Hiroshima 1-1-71 Ujina-higashi, Hiroshima 734-8558, JapanOriginal manuscript received June 15, 2012, Revisions received February 20, 2013, Accepted February 26, 2013


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