Vol.6 No.3 2014
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Research paper : A proposal for setting electric power saving rate to avoid risk of electric power shortage occurrence (I. ARIZONO et al.)−144−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.6 No.3 (2013) [7]G. Bennett: Probability inequalities for the sum of independent random variables, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 57, 33-45 (1962).[8]W. Hoeffiding: Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 58, 13-30 (1963).[9]M. J Cloud and B. C. Drachman: Inequalities with Applications to Engineering, Springer Verlag (1998). [10]The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated: http://www.kepco.co.jp/setsuden/graph/index.html, browsed on June 12, 2012.[11]The Kansai Electric Power Company, Incorporated: http://www.kepco.co.jp/setsuden/graph/pop/pop_pdf/forecast.pdf, browsed on November 15, 2012.[12]M. Talagrand: The missing factor in Hoeffding’s inequalities, Ann. Inst. H. Poincaré Probab. Statist., 31, 689-702 (1995).[13]V. Bentku: On Hoeffding’s inequalities, Ann. Probab., 32, 1650-1673 (2004).[14]C. H. Papadimitriou: Computational Complexity, Addison-Wesley (1994).[15]M. Mitzenmacher and E. Upfal: Probability and Computing: Randomized Algorithms and Probabilistic Analysis, Cambridge University Press (2005).AuthorsIkuo ARIZONOReceived doctorate degree of engineering from Osaka Prefecture University in 1988. Research Associate (1985 to 1990), Assistant Professor (1990 to 1994), Associate Professor (1994 to 2011) of the Graduate School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University. From 2011, Professor of the Graduate School of Natural and Technology, Okayama University. His research interests center on statistical quality control. In this paper, he was in charge of the whole design, scenario construction and system construction.Yasuhiko TAKEMOTOReceived doctorate degree (Engineering) from Osaka Prefecture University in 2004. Research Associate (2004 to 2007) of Department of Strategic Management, School of Business Administration, University of Hyogo. From 2007, Associate Professor of Faculty of Management and Information Systems, Prefectural University of Hiroshima. His research interests center on statistical quality control and supply chain management. In this paper, he was in charge of system construction, mathematical verification and numerical analysis. Discussions with Reviewers1 Significance of this paperComment (Hiroshi Tateishi, AIST, Itaru Ishii, National Museum of Nature and Science)Because the operation of nuclear power plants almost stopped under the influence of the East Japan Great Earthquake disaster, restriction of electricity supply have become severe, and a large-scale blackout is considered as a real risk. On the other hand, all the information about the electricity supply and demand is stashed under the control of the electric power companies. In addition, an objective tool for risk management cannot be found except for the regression model using past data published by electric power companies. This paper deals with a procedure for evaluating the electricity shortage outbreak probability based on probability inequality using the limited information about the uncertain electricity demand and supply. The objective explanation of the required power saving rate is addressed based on the evaluated electricity shortage outbreak probability. When we consider the background mentioned in the previous paragraph, we conclude that the scenario of this paper is more or less persuasive. Although it is slightly different in content from the journal, Synthesiology, which sets the creation of social values as its goal, we conclude that the paper is significant as it shows a rational methodology that leads to value creation. However, if such an evaluation system does not play a concrete role in real decision-making processes, it only becomes an impractical theory, and might not be received socially. In such a case, it is incomplete in terms of the purpose of Synthesiology. In the case of applying the contents of this paper to a real electric power system, there are some future subjects to be considered. For instance, the authors evaluate the electricity shortage outbreak probability by using the expectation and variance of the electricity demand and supply, without supposing any probability distribution from limitations of available information. How much difference will this simplification cause in the results? Can the fluctuation of the electricity supply from natural energy caused by climatic conditions be handled equally with the fluctuation caused by the influence of artificial factors such as the stop of operation for maintenance? The authors should explain their intentions of submitting this paper to Synthesiology including such future issues.Answer (Ikuo Arizono)Under the present situation about the electricity supply and demand, we intend to give some kind of contribution from the viewpoint of our area of specialization such as industrial engineering, operations research and applied statistics. In this sense, we also consider that the decision-making process and the interpretation of decisions based on the proposed evaluation system need to be persuasive in order to be accepted socially. For this purpose, we have arranged the points of argument so that decision-making using the proposed evaluation system could be accepted socially.On the other hand, we thank the reviewers for their understanding of this study. With that in mind, I explain “our intentions in submitting the paper to Synthesiology”. The main intention is in the policy of the academic journal “Synthesiology”, that is, instead of a passive attitude that the results of research become understood naturally by society, the researcher who understands the possibility and limit of the results of research should popularize the result of research in a positive manner by himself//herself. This research focuses on an extremely contemporary problem. We would like to suggest this research as a starting point for discussions based on a new sense of values

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