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Research paper : Modeling the social acceptance of industrial technologies (M. Matsumoto et al.)−33−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.2 No.1 (2009) goals were set. Although it may be too much to explain all of the considerations, by selecting the major consideration processes, I think you will be able to clarify “why the models were selected and combined” and “what are the (current) technological limits of the combined model.”In this case, it becomes difficult to arrange the chapters of the paper. As written in the end of chapter 2 (Clarification of research objectives), you had both clearly decided goals and those with degree of freedom. How about stating how setting goals with freedom was involved in the integration of model in chapter 3, and how you settled the objectives and models after what kind of consideration processes and evaluations in the beginning or the end of chapter 4?Answer (Mitsutaka Matsumoto)In modeling a phenomenon, particularly when modeling human and social phenomena rather than natural phenomenon, it is impossible to model every single aspect, so it is important to consider the model by clarifying “which aspect of phenomenon you want to focus (= setting the objective)” at all times. The standard to determine the success or failure of the model in the process is ultimately “persuasiveness.” In case of natural phenomenon, the power of persuasion of a model or a theory is how accurately it can explain and recreate the phenomenon. However, it is often impossible to use reproducibility as point of persuasion because experiment cannot be done in human and social phenomena. In that case, it is necessary to consider what should be the scale of persuasiveness of the model. According to your advice, we newly added section 4.1 to describe the processes of objective setting and model consideration (Fig. 3) and added discussion on persuasiveness on which our research depends. For objective, “whether the subject of diffusion projection was short-term (several year span) or long-term (several decade span)” became the key criteria for model selection. For persuasion, we emphasized “persuasion by analogy.” In this case, when we are asked, “Why did you get this projection?” in assessing the diffusion speed of eco-products, we made sure we had logical ground to reply, “Because the diffusion speed of the past similar products showed those figures.”2 Ultimate goal (dream) of the researchQuestion and comment (Masaaki Mochimaru)I understand that the subject of research was the process of acceptance of industrial technology by the society, and I think it is significant that you have constructed a computational model. Here, you took up the survey for METI as specific example, but please indicate the destination of this social acceptance model (researcher’s dream and social acceptance) in the beginning. For example, like what you mention in the end of the paper. In an ordinary academic paper, significance and difficulty of the specific issues to be solved are described in the beginning, and then future developments and views in the end. In Synthesiology, we recommend presentation of researcher’s dream (image of what one wishes to realize in future although it is not totally solved in the paper) in the beginning, and then describe why the subject presented in the paper was selected as a way to realize that dream. This is because we believe the way of thinking (knowledge system) where large dream is realized step by step is part of “Synthesiology.”Answer (Mitsutaka Matsumoto)As dream, I wish to deeply understand the interaction of technology and society. Recently, companies speak of “management of technology” and “management of innovation,” and policymakers talk of “science of science policy.” Both are pursuit of understanding of relationship of technology and society. Our research is related closely to these. Our research deals with the part close to the market. As approach in pursuing the dream, I think the ideal will be to study the research theme one by one and to accumulate the results toward the large goal. I added the description of the goal in the beginning of the paper.3 Age dependence of consumer preference modelQuestion and comment (Masaaki Mochimaru)I understand that the expression of consumer preference model and the ways to obtain the parameter are effective. I ask the following question with this knowledge. This consumer preference model is age dependent (affected by social consensus). For example, wouldn’t changes in society such as “increased environmental consciousness” influence the Ht value?Answer (Mitsutaka Matsumoto)As you indicate, there is age dependency in consumer preference. The model selection in Discussion 1 was closely related. The reason why the basic model was changed from consumer preference model to Bass model was because we decided it was difficult to set consumer preference model as base since consumer preference do change with time. In this study, age dependency of consumer preference was handled as scenario. For example, with the rise of environmental consciousness, the importance of consumer’s environmental image of a product (in the model, “wi, eco-image” of equation (6)) would increase, and it was evaluated in similar manner as the subsidy scenario of the paper. It is very interesting to see how much the consumer’s environmental consciousness has changed in the real world.4 Verification of the modelQuestion and comment (Masaaki Mochimaru)Since the model deals with human group behavior in the real world, I understand verification is difficult. Isn’t confirmation of parameter sensitivity a possible verification method at this point? In the integrated model, the necessary parameters are determined by similar phenomena and experimental data, but I think simulation analysis can be done to determine which parameter will strongly influence the projection or what level of care is needed to identify the parameter.As another method, there is verification of to what level reproduction is possible using this model for the social policy intervention and technological diffusion that were actually conducted in the real world. For example, we can see the level of reproducibility of this model for how much the right-of-way priority for hybrid cars, which was conducted in California, affected the technological diffusion, with comparison with nearby states. Although it seems that actual verification is difficult (to obtain data), it will be useful for you to indicate what the actual Fig. a Different types of synthesis.Integrated TechnologyTechnology Element ATechnology Element BIntegrated TechnologyIntegrated TechnologyEssential Technology Element ATechnology Element ATechnology Element BTechnology Element CMarginal Technology Element BMarginal Technology Element C1. Aufheben type2. Breakthrough type3. Strategic Selection type

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