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Research paper : Modeling the social acceptance of industrial technologies (M. Matsumoto et al.)−30−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.2 No.1 (2009) ・ Environmental performance is good Same value as product price being 32,900 yen lessPreference function (Uik of equation (5)) was formulated from this result (wij) and product specification (skj) to calculate the H value of equation (4), and this was used in diffusion analysis. Specific example will be presented in section 7.2.6 Tool creationA tool that allows the analysis to be done easily was created based on the above model and data. Figure 7 shows the screen of the tool. Basic setting and Bass model setting are done on the upper left section of the screen. The diffusion coefficient is set by directly entering the figures or by selecting the past products. The settings for consumer preference model and scenario case are done in the right part. Result is displayed in center left and lower left.7 AnalysisUsing the tools and methods shown in the above section, diffusion analyses of energy-saving air conditioner, energy-saving refrigerator, hybrid car, high-efficiency water heater, compact (bulb-type) fluorescent lamp, and solar power generation system were conducted. This section will describe the diffusion analysis of energy-saving air conditioner. Air conditioners consume about 25 % of total power consumption at homeNote 2), and as their energy-saving performance has improved over the past 10 years or soNote 3), diffusion of energy-saving air conditioner is expected to be effective countermeasure for global warming.7.1 SettingsIn the analysis, it was assumed that there were two types of air conditioners, traditional (TAC) and energy-saving (EAC). Consumers selected one or the other. Assuming that energy-saving air conditioner started diffusion from year 2000, the analysis period was set from 2000 to 2040. The consumer preference function was set up as follows:Ui, EAC = wi, initial price・tEAC, initial price+ wi, annual electricity cost・tEAC, annual electricity cost+ wi, eco image・ tEAC, eco image+ wi, others・ tEAC, othersUi, TAC = wi, initial price・ tTAC, initial price+ wi, annual electricity cost・ tTAC, annual electricity cost+ wi, eco image・ tTAC, eco image+ wi, others・ tTAC, others(6)The product specifications of energy-saving air conditioner and traditional air conditioner were set according to the model case shown in the homepage of the Energy Conservation Center, JapanNote 4). They are shown in Table 3.CO2 reduction effectEco-product: 1Trad-product: 0Eco-imageEco-product: 19,000 yen/yearTrad-product: 27,000 yen/yearAnnual electricity costLearning curve constantPrice segment that is affected by the learning curveEco-product: 134,000 yenTrad-product: 84,000 yenInitial price0.148 ( value of air conditioner)Imitation coefficient ( ) 0.0069 ( value of air conditioner)Innovation coefficient ( ) 130 million (current diffusion)Final number of diffusion End of projectionStart of projectionSettingItem200020400.150,000 yen115 kg-CO2/conditioner・yearprprSwitch for consumer preference dataSettings for scenario (change factors)Price transition of eco-products (changes according to learning curve and subsidy)Preference distribution display (horizontal axis: ‒ ; vertical axis: number of consumers)Settings for product spec and learning curve constantTransition of CO2 reduction effectProjected diffusion curveSetting of diffusion coefficient ( )Basic settingp, rSimilar product is selected (diffusion coefficient of target product is set).Or, coefficient value is entered directly.Ui,EC Ui,TRFig. 7 Screen of diffusion analysis tool.Table 3 Settings for diffusion analysis of energy-conserving air conditioner.

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