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Research paper : Modeling the social acceptance of industrial technologies (M. Matsumoto et al.)−28−Synthesiology - English edition Vol.2 No.1 (2009) calculated in reflection of the consumer preference model, and have the following definition. Consumers are assumed to have two choices: eco-product (EC) and traditional or “trad-product” (TR). The distribution of difference of consumer’s preference for eco-product and trad-product (Ui,EC – Ui,TR) is calculated. Definition of U will be given in section 4.4. H is the percentage of consumers who prefers eco-products to trad-products (percentage of consumer i that satisfies Ui,EC – Ui,TR > 0). The value of H calculated according to current level (current s value) is H0, and H value during period t is Ht. Since the H value changes according to policies (e.g. subsidy) and technological advances (e.g. increased performance), in equation (4), when percentage Ht of consumers who prefer eco-product changes during period t, the new purchases Xt during period t changes in proportion to the percentage of the change. If Ht is same value as H0 throughout t, the curve will be same as the one for the Bass model.4.3 Setting the diffusion coefficient (p, r, and N of equation (4))The diffusion coefficients (p, r, and N) for products targeted for analysis are set as follows according to the status of diffusion of the products[6]. (1) If the product is already diffused to some level, p, r, and N are estimated from past diffusion transitions (actual past values of Xt and nt). (2) If the product is newly launched on market or has not been launched yet, p, r, and N values for diffusion of past similar products are applied.In principle, for this research, we use the latter method. 4.4 Setting the consumer preference model (H of equation (4))Consumer i's preference to product k, that is Uik, is defined as sum of item of preference factor j as follows: Uik=Σwij・skj (5)j is preference factor (attribute), and skj is value (level) of attribute j of product k. In the example of energy-saving air conditioner described in chapter 7:k = {conventional air conditioner, energy-saving air conditioner}j = {initial price, annual electricity bill, eco-image, others}This is one example of the setting. wij is weight of preference of each factor, and conjoint analysis is used for quantification. Uik is quantified, and H value of equation (4) is calculated based on these values. Examples will be shown in sections 5.2 and 7.2.4.5 Flow of analysisFigure 4 shows the flow of the analysis. First, basic settings were determined. The years in which the diffusion analysis would be started and completed were set. Next diffusion coefficients p, r, and N of the subject product were set (method shown in section 4.3). Next, consumer preference model was set. Using equation (5) as format of consumer preference model, attribute j of the equation was determined, and 1. Basic settings ・Setting for starting and finishing years of projection ・Setting for diffusion coefficient ( , , ) ・Selection of consumer model (setting of and ) ・Setting for level of product attribute ( ) ・Setting for learning curve model2. Settings for basic case ・Setting of chronological change (changes on and ) → Simulation (equation (4))3. Settings for scenario case ・Setting of chronological change (changes on and ) → Simulation (equation (4))Np rjwijskjwijskjwijskj1. Consideration of goal Importance on policy impact analysis and sensitivity analysis ((3) and (4) of Section 2)3. ModelModel based on consumer preference modelPersuasiveness of result ×Cannot explain diffusion status3. Model revisionProblemclearedDecided that persuasiveness of projection (basic analysis) was ×Persuasiveness of logic ×Reconsideration1. Consideration of goalIs analysis for long-term or short-term? ( (5) of Section 2)Long-term3. ModelModel based on Bass modelDecided that persuasiveness of projection (basic analysis) was 〇Persuasiveness of analogy 〇Next issue1. Consideration of objectiveWhat should we do about sensitivity analysis ((4) of Section 2)?3. ModelIncorporate consumer preference modelHow should it be incorporated?3. ModelTry several methods3. ModelEquation (4)Decided that persuasiveness of projection (sensitivity analysis) was 〇Persuasiveness of logic 〇(Room for discussion)Fig. 4 Flow of analysis.Fig. 3 Process of model construction.j

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