Mankind has been emitting massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by consuming fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum, causing widespread concerns including progression of global warming, sharp climate changes, rises in sea levels, changes in the ecosystem, as well as serious impacts to food production.

As the strategy for controlling the accumulation of global warming gases in the atmosphere in order to counter global warming is an issue encompassing the energy utilization and industrial structures of countries worldwide and even extends to review of individual lifestyles, finding a solution for it is not an easy task. It requires the collective wisdom of all mankind.

The role of scientists here is to minimize the uncertainty of the present knowledge through observation and experiment, to perform future prediction with higher accuracy, and to propose countermeasure technologies and validate/evaluate the effects thereof. This is exactly the “fusion of prediction, assessment and protection technologies” that AIST works for in the “Second Period Research Strategy.”

The first step in countering global warming is to become aware of the present state and predict the future. Observation of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has been implemented continuously since the International Geographical Year conducted in 1957, and presently, is performed at over 100 observation points. In addition, diverse observation systems for capturing global-scale phenomena are being proposed and implemented, including satellites and ground/marine observation systems.

However, suggestions have been made that conventional observation systems are weakly coordinated and that we are entering an era in which earth observation strategies should be shifted from seed-oriented to utilization need-oriented technologies. The enhancing of international cooperation on global earth observation was advocated in the G8 summit of 2003, and as a result, the Earth Observation Summit was held in which the GEOSS (a global earth observation system consisting of multiple systems) 10-year execution plan was approved. The plan aims to implement observation catering to the needs of users, based upon international cooperation. It maintains the existing observation systems, and develops systems and sensors which cover their deficits, to thereby establish an earth observation system which integrates satellite and on-site observations.

In Japan, the Council for Science and Technology Policy has formulated the “Global Earth Observation Promotion Strategy” targeting the next 10 years, and will contribute to construction of GEOSS through a system of collaboration among the Cabinet office and various ministries.

AIST has been implementing observation of the carbon dioxide balance in the forest ecosystem and the ocean. We are presently initiating research to develop new observation systems and sensors to be used at these observation sites, as well as methods for their evaluation and standardization. In addition, as the GEOSS observation concept shown in the Figure is consistent with the view of the GEO Grid System (AIST TODAY July 2006, P20-21) under development at AIST, AIST is expected to play a significant role in this area in the future.

In order to resolve the issue of global warming, we need to not only “become aware of the present state and predict the future” but also to implement strategies to control the warming gas concentration in the atmosphere. However, establishing a society which does not need to rely on fossil fuels is expected to take some time. Until then, while accepting the use of fossil fuels under international agreement, we may need to select a method for rigorously controlling the emission of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Such methods include carbon dioxide recovery/storage technologies, for which underground aquifers and deep sea are presently under consideration as sites of storage. It is highly likely that systems resembling GEOSS mentioned above will become necessary for evaluating the adequacy of storage and in selecting suitable sites, as well as in post monitoring.

AIST conducts research which contributes to GEOSS establishment, and promotes research linking countermeasure technologies to it as well.

Similar to the progression seen in medical care, from examination to diagnosis, treatment and prevention, we are aiming to advance from environmental measurement to diagnosis, remediation and prevention as well. Therefore, not only are we conducting research on environmental measurement technologies, but also on the environmental science to serve as an intellectual platform of diagnosis.

We have newly incorporated the concept of “field” to develop a technology for simultaneous observation of substance and field. Here, “field” refers to the ecosystem into which substances are emitted. By bilateral viewing of the effect of a chemical substance upon the ecosystem and reversely, the “purifying” function of the ecosystem upon that chemical substance, we collect useful data for environmental diagnosis and the industrialization of environmental function. Analogically speaking, in watching a baseball game, we find it interesting only because we watch the ball and the players at the same time. Until now, the chemists have been watching the ball (chemical substance) while the biologists have been watching the players (microorganism in the ecosystem) independently of each other, which leads to the loss of useful information. Therefore, we are developing techniques such as electrophoresis and mass spectrometry, familiar to chemists, which can be applied as new methods of analyzing microorganisms. While existing methods that involve culturing and DNA analysis require extended periods of time, we are targeting measurement on the order of minutes. These new methods of analysis will propagate to areas such as food (salmonella, etc.), hygiene (O-157 bacillus and in-hospital infections), and safety (airport quarantines), in addition to environmental areas such as bioremediation. They are also useful in the search for microorganisms that possess new functions among the 99% of environmental microorganisms said to be as yet unknown, and investigation of their potential application to industry. By substituting “biological system” for “ecosystem” and “biomolecules” for “microorganisms”, respectively, the technology may also develop into a health science consisting of a collaboration between medical and environmental science.